Low Grow SFC: A stock-flow consistent ecological macroeconomic model for Canada
System dynamics model by Tim Jackson and Peter Victor, developing sustainable prosperity scenarios for the Canadian economy out to 2067. Three scenarios generated with the model are described in the new edition of Managing Without Growth (Chapter 11). Desktop users can explore the model in the embedded online beta version below, or go directly to the ISEE page. CUSP working paper No 16, outlining LowGrow SFC in detail, will be published on this page shortly.
Since the end of the second world war, most countries have pursued economic growth as their top economic policy objective. Economic growth has brought enormous benefits to many people, especially those living in high income countries. However, it is increasingly obvious that the benefits of growth have not been equally shared. Far from it. Income and wealth inequality is on the rise and some of the economic growth in high income countries has come at the expense of poorer parts of the world. With accumulating evidence of environmental degradation, social disruption and population displacement, and with declining confidence in governments and corporations to deliver a good life for all, we need to choose the future we want rather than accept the disturbing consequences of current trends.
The first step is to imagine different possibilities. This is not easy. We need to start from where we are and to ground the alternatives in real data. To help do this Tim Jackson and Peter Victor have created a computer model of an economy that encompasses economic, environmental, energy, social and financial considerations. LowGrow SFC incorporates many features developed over several years of collaboration and brings together: 1) the environmental and resource constraints on economic activity; 2) a full account of production, consumption, employment and public finances in the ‘real economy’ at the level of the nation state; 3) a comprehensive account of the financial economy, including the main interactions between financial agents. The model is of a single high income country which happens to be Canada. Alternative futures derived from the model are likely to be similar for other advanced economies.
Three scenarios generated with the model describe alternative futures for Canada from 2017 to 2067. One scenario is a base case which is essentially a projection of the past into the future. The second scenario introduces a vigorous program of greenhouse gas reduction. The third scenario builds on the second by adding more environmental, social and economic measures that combine to provide sustainable prosperity. The scenarios are not predictions of what will happen, but an exploration of possibilities. Interested readers can explore the implications for themselves in the online beta version of LowGrow SFC.
LowGrow SFC is part of a suite of system dynamics models developed by Tim Jackson and Peter Victor, including SIGMA, which addresses the key challenge of inequality in the context of declining growth rates; and FALSTAFF, which explores the financial and economic dimensions of a post-growth economy.The CUSP working paper No 16, outlining LowGrow SFC in detail, will be published on this page shortly.
Jackson, T and P Victor 2019. Low Grow SFC: A stock-flow consistent ecological macroeconomic model for Canada. CUSP Working Paper No 16. Guildford: University of Surrey (in preparation).
Victor, P 2019. Managing Without Growth—Slower by Design, Not Disaster. Edward Elgar.
Sers, M and P Victor 2018. The Energy-Emissions Trap. Ecological Economics, 151: 10–21.
Jackson, T 2018: The Post-Growth Challenge: Secular Stagnation, Inequality and the Limits to Growth. Ecological Economics, 156: 236–246.
Rye, C and T Jackson 2018. A review of EROEI-dynamics energy-transition models. Energy Policy, 122.
Jackson, T and P Victor 2018: Confronting inequality in a post-growth world – basic income, factor substitution and the future of work. CUSP Working Paper No 11. Guildford: University of Surrey.
Jackson, T 2017. Prosperity Without Growth—Foundations for the Economy of Tomorrow. Routledge.
Jackson, T 2016. Beyond consumer capitalism – foundations for a sustainable prosperity. CUSP Working Paper No 2. Guildford: University of Surrey
Jackson, T and R Webster 2016. Limits revisited – a review of the limits to growth debate. APPG on Limits to Growth, April 2016.
Jackson, T, Victor, P and A Asjad Naqvi 2016. Towards a Stock – Flow Consistent Ecological Macroeconomics. WWW for Europe: Work Package 205, Milestone 40 “Report on model results including additional policies to counter averse effects“. Working Paper no 114.
Jackson, T and P Victor 2016. Does slow growth lead to rising inequality? Some theoretical reflections and numerical simulations. Ecological Economics, 121: 206–219.
Jackson, T and P Victor 2015. Does credit create a growth imperative? A quasi-steady state economy with interest-bearing debt. Ecological Economics, 120: 32–48.