Against all odds? Modelling the low-carbon transition | Blog by Martin Sers
Can renewable energy supply grow rapidly enough to both, cover societies growing energy needs and displace fossil fuel use sufficiently to keep carbon emissions below some “safe” level? — the leading question of a recent CUSP paper in Ecological Economics. In this blog, Martin Sers is summarising the findings.
‘Secular stagnation’ meets the ‘GDP fetish’ | Blog by Tim Jackson
Tim Jackson introduces his new CUSP working paper ‘The Post-Growth Challenge’, in which he discusses the state of advanced economies ten years after the crisis. Our attempts to prop up an ailing capitalism have increased inequality, hindered ecological innovation and undermined stability, he argues.
The Energy-Emissions Trap | Journal Paper by Martin Sers and Peter Victor
The requirement to reduce emissions to avoid potentially dangerous climate change implies a dilemma for societies heavily dependent on fossil fuels. As renewable capacity requires energy to construct there is an initial fossil fuel cost to creating new renewable capacity. An insufficiently rapid transition to renewables, it turns out, will imply a scenario in which it is impossible to avoid either transgressing emissions ceilings or facing energy shortages.
A Theory of Change Approach for Measuring Economic Welfare Beyond GDP | Working Paper No 10
It is widely acknowledged that GDP is not a suitable measure of economic welfare. In this paper, Simon Mair, Christine Corlet Walker and Angela Druckman propose a novel framework for indicator development: the ‘Theory of Change’ approach — a causal model approach in which the relationships between system inputs, activities, outputs and outcomes of the economy are explicitly articulated, and can be used to identify theoretically sound indicators for economic welfare.
Survey: Green investment & Decisions
As part of our System Dynamics work stream, CUSP researcher Sarah Hafner has set up an online survey for investment practitioners to help inform her work on modelling investment decision in a system dynamics framework.
In Defence of Degrowth — A Comment by Simon Mair
The concept of 'degrowth' is politically infeasible, according to a recent article by Branko Milanović. In this blog, Simon Mair argues that ‘degrowth’ is no less unrealistic than the alternatives.
World development within Planetary Boundaries | Lecture with Johan Rockström
The advent of the Anthropocene, the scientific recognition of the remarkably stable state of the Earth system during the Holocene Inter-glacial, the rising evidence of global risks of crossing Earth tipping points and the signs of a gradual decline in Earth resilience, constitute overwhelming evidence for the need of a deep mind-shift. In his lecture, Johan Rockström presents his science of sustainability.
A fair days wage for a fair days work? | Blog by Simon Mair
The people who make our clothes are paid very low wages. We instinctively feel that this is unfair, but it can be hard to articulate why this is. Even harder, is saying what can be done about it. Summarising his recent journal article with Tim Jackson and Angela Druckman, Simon Mair uses the living wage as a basis for claims about fairness, and discuss regional collective bargaining as a solution to unfair wages.
Prosperity without Growth – Foundations for the Economy of Tomorrow | By Tim Jackson
The publication of Prosperity without Growth was a landmark in the sustainability debate. This substantially revised and re-written edition updates its arguments and considerably expands upon them. Tim Jackson demonstrates that building a ‘post-growth’ economy is not Utopia - it's a precise, definable and meaningful task. It’s about taking simple steps towards an economics fit for purpose.
On the use of instability indicators in exploring inter-decadal GDP variability | Working Paper No 4
This paper explores the use of instability indicators developed in statistical physics to analyse the stability of the GDP within national longitudinal datasets. From our early results it is suggested that they may provide invaluable insights into the inter-decadal dynamics of the macro-economy, providing potentially useful insights into (e.g.) the nature of the business cycle, secular stagnation and the restoring forces of the economy.
Measuring Prosperity? | Blog by Simon Mair
Barclay’s prosperity map has a very limited view of prosperity, focused almost entirely on financial wealth. Yet media reports have been entirely uncritical. We argue that this shows the power and dangers of measuring prosperity.
Nexus Thinking | Annual RGS conference w/ Tim Jackson
The debate on limits to growth is now more than four decades old. But recent experience offers new insights into the challenge. As part of the Annual RGS conference, Tim Jackson's talk starts from a critical examination of the conventional vision and explores the possibilities for moving beyond it.
Limits Revisited | Blog by Tim Jackson
To coincide with the launch of a new All Party Parliamentary Group on Limits to Growth, Tim Jackson discusses the continuing relevance of the Club of Rome’s groundbreaking report in today’s context and introduces Limits Revisited, a new review of the debate, co-written with environmental writer Robin Webster.